In an Uncertain World, Scenario Planning is Critical to Building the Optimal Workforce

August 30, 2025

Artificial intelligence (AI) and related technologies are fundamentally reshaping the nature of work. With IDC forecasting global spend on AI systems to reach nearly $227 billion in 2025, AI is clearly transforming industries in previously unimaginable ways. Routine transactional tasks are increasingly automated, while agentic workflow is starting to take over many day-to-day operational functions.

This shift is not only streamlining processes and boosting workforce productivity but is intensifying competition for talent that can implement and work with AI-related technology. This has led to a very high demand for specific technical skills sets. In fact, projections from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics anticipate a 36% growth in data scientist roles through 2033 vs. 4% for all occupations. Despite some very public layoffs in the technology space, research my own organization has done shows that only 1 out of 2 positions are getting filled in the data science domain specifically.

For now, the adoption of AI seems to be more about human augmentation than wholesale replacement of employees. According to a 2025 report from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, multiple sectors, from content creation and market research to customer service and software engineering, use generative AI to increase worker productivity by 33%, and we’re just getting started.

Notably, more companies are adopting a skills-based approach to talent acquisition so they can focus on the capabilities that enable success across roles, and this shift is reshaping hiring practices. For example, nearly 43% of all new graduate hires in public accounting in 2020 were non-accounting majors, suggesting a deliberate move toward integrating “fusion” skill sets that blend technical expertise with traditional roles.

What got you here won’t get you there

Most people agree with the idea that AI should elevate work performed by humans, allowing employees to operate where they add the most value and at the top of each person’s capability. Elevating more human-centric skills has the benefit of driving higher levels of engagement and retention because workers are tasked with activities that are more aligned with what they trained for, what is more satisfying, and of higher value.

Yet not all employees will find it easy to build these more complex skills. In fact, large segments of the workforce risk losing relevance unless they are reskilled or redirected to new types of work or new ways of working. Much of the onus to make this transition falls on employees themselves but they cannot succeed without concerted effort and a true partner in their employer. A smart employer will look for ways to make better use of existing employee skillsets while helping them to level up in ways that provide benefits to both.

Technical capabilities such as digital literacy, analytical planning and execution, solution architecture, and data science are becoming essential, but just as important are skills such as critical thinking, problem-solving, influencing, and negotiation. Many of these can be taught with a combination of instruction and practice, but softer skills are often hard to learn unless employers step in and provide guidance, mentorship and the right set of experiences that will only come from designing a journey.

Ultimately, with more uncertainty about the future, there is a greater emphasis on agility and adaptation. In responding to change, businesses must prioritize both organizational and individual agility, which requires a substantive cultural change.

Enabling an adaptive mindset

In lieu of a crystal ball, leaders must develop strategies based on data and insight to drive change where they need it the most. This requires developing an efficient and repeatable process that is integrated into strategic and operational planning. Specifically, leaders need to establish a data-driven process for monitoring, modeling, and scenario planning that continuously translates business strategy into a future mix of work – and then further into the capabilities and talent required to perform that work.

Companies can then actively monitor shifts in the environment, generate insights from different sources of information and rapidly adjust talent and workforce strategies to match.

Making high probability bets

Companies that win in times of rapid change are good at identifying trends and understanding implications for markets, customers, and business operations. They make high-probability bets by confidently adjusting their workforce to align enterprise capabilities with future needs and those needs are evolving faster than ever before.

Keep in mind that while workforce planning is an important tool, it’s a continuous process that works best when integrated seamlessly into strategy and operating plan development. It’s also not an overnight shift, and the operational changes that drive long-term growth can take five to ten years to achieve. So, make those high-confidence, long-term bets early on using a disciplined process and good insights from data. Because the most successful companies are already taking the next step and building a culture and operating model that not only expects change but plans for it.

By Donncha Carroll

December 21, 2024

Strategic Workforce Planning: How to Salvage a Lost Opportunity

Strategic workforce planning (SWP) has taken a long and winding road over the past 15 years and the final destination appears...

December 20, 2024

How One Company Increased Applications by 400% Per Requisition

A multibillion-dollar technology conglomerate wanted to fuel business growth by improving its talent acquisition rate in a hyper-competitive labor market. But...

December 19, 2024

Trends in Talent Acquisition

In the face of “The Great Resignation”, many organizations are experiencing a workforce crisis amid an increasingly complex and competitive market....

Related Posts

Make Bold Moves

Thank you for your interest in Lotis Blue. Please fill out the form to let us
know how we can help. We'll be in touch soon.

Get in touch